Not enough data on immunity yet
Todd Heberlein Todd Heberlein

Not enough data on immunity yet

We don’t know if the antibody tests now being deployed are accurate, and even if they are accurate, we don’t yet know what the results imply.

Read More
What will the death toll be? Choose your numbers
Todd Heberlein Todd Heberlein

What will the death toll be? Choose your numbers

In a nutshell, estimated death toll = Population_size * (1 - 1/R0) * IFR. And as of right now, R0 is the only variable we can really control. This is why social isolation is important, but it is also important to realize R0 may vary by region. One plan may not fit all.

Read More
Big Early Signs of COVID-19
Todd Heberlein Todd Heberlein

Big Early Signs of COVID-19

By January 23 the White House should have put this country on a war footing - setting up manufacturing of PPEs, checking the functionality of its existing respirators and ramping up production of new ones, and deploying serious resources to develop high throughput testing to support broad surveillance of the disease.

Read More